Will Bahati constituency witness another female MP?
In the previous post, we looked at the prospects of the next Nakuru county governor being a female, and odds are high. Either the incumbent will be reelected or be replaced with the current senator in the 2027 ballot.
Still on the so called Nakuru Girls, at the constituency level, we've four female MPs elected in the four of the eleven consistencies that forms the Nakuru county. There are Irene Njoki of Bahati constituency, Charity Kathambi of Njoro constituency, Jayne Kihara of Naivasha constituency and Martha Wangari of Gilgil constituency. When you rope in the governor, woman representative and the senator, its clear women are breaking barriers in politics, and we're not speaking about using the gender card to ascend to political offices.
Looking at my home constituency of Bahati, there are possibilities the incumbent, Irene Njoki, will be replaced by a woman. One such is an aspirant by name of Mary Justus Mannabay, and who is giving the incumbent headaches, politically speaking.
For instance, if she puts a project for community benefit like a high mast light colloquially known as mulika mwizi, its taken down by the MP's camp. Sabotage observes in non-related projects as well. The aspirant has said the projects belongs to the community that benefits from them, and she or her foundation do not lay claims to them, and therefore the beneficiary community is the custodian of them, and wonders who benefits from vandalism. The MP's office denies having a hand in sabotaging the said projects, but the people on the ground says otherwise.
To know that she's a serious contender, she's the current aspirant that the incumbent's camp have gone hammers and tongs against. If you go through social media platforms for Bahati constituency groups, you're likely to see lots of monikers they've ascribed her. The legion of bloggers in the incumbent's camp are soft on other aspirants. This points to Mannabay as a threat.
What does this lead one to conclude? We may end up replacing the current female legislator with another female if factors are kept constant.
Then we need to look at the political party vehicle she's in. The Democratic for Citizens Party (DCP) is currently popular opposition party in the larger Mt Kenya region. The party leader, Rigathi Gachagua, popularly known as Riggy G, has said the united opposition will use zoning method in Nakuru and support a single candidate for different political offices based on the candidate's popularity with the electorate, instead of individual parties in united opposition fielding its own individual candidate. This will translate to Mannabay facing other contenders in the primaries, and trouncing them. She hit the ground early, and still has time to consolidate her ground base, long before party primaries happen next year when official campaign period kicks proper. Call it having a good headstart in a crowded field, as some aspirants will fall by wayside as they've no deep resources to sustain high octane campaigns.
With the ruling United Democratic Party (UDA) having lost much of support in the entire Mt Kenya region, opposition ticket will carry the day.
The question remains: will it be easier to replace the so called Nakuru Girls and with an all ensemble of a male cast barring the woman representative position? The answer is unlikely, as new female faces will assume those offices.
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